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Re: COVID-19: Has your perspective changed over the last couple of days?

Yes, as I don't remember this happening during Swing Flu or other such epidemics/pandemics. We are having church services this Sunday, but I am amazed at the cancellation of so many events in the area, including church services.

I am not sure. I still think possibly we have too much The sky is falling down. But I sit here locally in NC and can't see any effects other than the news. Is it as bad as the Yellow Fever? Polio? I never faced Yellow Fever but I remember some quarantines during the polio epidemic in my youth.To be truthful, I hope it is HYPE and it all blows over. Here locally my grandson will be working at home with his job the next 2 weeks. The youth sports are cancelled. I was surprised at Winter fest being called off. One night the pastor says it will go on the next day it is cancelled.I don't know if my opinion has changed. I think it is serious, but doesn't deserve the extremes being taken.... I HOPE I AM RIGHT, BUT my opinion doesn't go far and I definitely know nothing about VIRUS! Some facts but mostly just my [email protected]/

My perspective changed a week or so ago when my daughter read an update from a missionary she knows (not COG) in China, near Wuhan. He reported that the way the Chinese have tried to contain the virus is to pretty much shut down everything except food stores. Your temp is checked coming into and out of the village. He is the only one in his family to leave the house in the last month, and that is only to get food. He said that it has been fatal to folks besides the elderly. They have apparently shown video of children found next to their dead mom...heart wrenching!The problem is the incubation period can last up to 14 days in which you are contagious (and you may not be exhibiting any symptoms.) Think of all the people you come in contact with in 14 days! You could infect a lot of people and not even be sick yourself.People like my husband who are immunocomproimised have no way to fight this. Please be careful about contact with others!Consider this....10 days ago Italy didn't have a single case. Now they are making choices as to who is put on a ventilator and who dies...We don't need to panic or fear, but we do need to be wise. It's not going to kill us to stay home for a while More of Him...less of me.twitter.com/camiracle77www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=691241499&ref=name

There are so many things I could say about this reaction/overreaction. My perspective has not changed. I am a Nurse Practitioner and see sick people all year around. Increased numbers during influenza season.......every year..... our influenza numbers are not reported now because they don't have to be. So, all the patients I see, test and treat, are not reported in the numbers. First I will say that all people who are immunocompromised should ALWAYS be cautious during influenza season, the fact that everyone keeps throwing this around shows lack of understanding. Any and all respiratory viruses are very hard on those immunocompromised. Second, people keep saying that H1N1 is a seasonal flu and we can't compare it. However, in 2009, we didn't know that it was just seasonal, it was a NOVEL mutation of influenza. It was far, far worse than what we have now. Third, I want to address statistics for mortality rates. Mortality rates CANNOT be calculated until an outbreak is over. Projections can be made, but they almost always end up inaccurate, one way or another. Until we test EVERYONE, or at the least everyone that is suspected and the finality of the season is over, we just can't know what the mortality rate is. Forth, as for China, you cannot believe anything that comes out of China. One thing the US discovered is that China knew about the virus for several months. By not notifying the world, they delayed us in being able to move forward with isolation of the virus, testing, and treatment and vaccines perhaps. Just for a frame of reference, this is how we come up with the seasonal influenza vaccine. I do agree with being cautious, perhaps staying away from the most vulnerable. But shouldn't we do that with a virus that each year causes 20,000 - 30,000+ deaths, as is the case with seasonal flu a lot of years. Today's totals in realtime for COVIC19: coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.htmlWorldwide147,399 total confirmed5,534 deaths US2,174 confirmed47 deathsNumbers of confirmed will go up simply because we will test more and more.The H1N1 outbreak was far, far worse and nothing like isolation and cancellation was done. Do NOT doubt this is Spiritual warfare. Whether we like it or not, many things like reactions and release of information are political in nature. Final thoughts, I do believe this virus is real, but just look at the numbers, it just doesn't add up. Jinjer

Thanks for another bit of professional insight. I believe in being careful, I think we are over reacting, partly political. As I have said I hope I am right.It is always shaky to predict an unknown. Some facts but mostly just my [email protected]/

I am in a homegroup with a respitory therapist who treats corona patients. He heard briefings from an expert from Emory who said from their research now, they do not consider it to be airborne. It needs a protein shell to infect others, which means it comes out in coughs and sneezes. He used to think it could be transmitted by an asymptomatic infected person, but they say they do not believe that to be the case. You sneeze or cough it out and it goes down to the ground, not like TB which floats in the air. They think it can infect surfaces for about three days after it's sneezed or coughed out, so that's nothing to sneeze at.If you ignore active cases, which could go either way, using the Johns Hopkins map of the disease here coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html,some places in China have a mortality rate of about 5% for the disease. But in parts of Italy, its like 48%, which sounds more like the mortality rate of the black death. Iran's mortality rate is under 14%. But it is hard to measure. I exclude active cases, because we do not know how many will recover. But if the disease just hits an area and wipes out the vulnerable in a few days and most of those who get better stay sick a week, those sick will show up in the 'Active' category.My formula is Death's divided by (Deaths + Recovered). And again, that could be a bad measurement if the deaths tend to occur early after detection

Respectfully, Link, half a dozen studies show this is not the case.

Jinjer, I was wondering if you could speak more about how H1N1 might be worse than COVID-19.The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6. This value is below values of R0 estimated for the 1918-1919 pandemic strain (mean R0 approximately 2 with a range of 1.4 to 2.8 ) and is comparable to R0 values estimated for seasonal strains of influenza (mean R0 1.3 with a range of 0.9 to 2.1).(source)SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) has an estimated R0 between 1.4 – 6.49 and a mean estimate of 3.28, meaning COVID-19 is clearaly more contagious.(source)The symptomatic case fatality rate (sCFR) for COVID-19 in countries that are doing wider spread testing than the US currently ranges between .05% and 5%, depending on the country's response. (I agree with you that this is an estimate, and we cannot know the final CFR until the end of the pandemic, but these numbers seem to be in line with what we have seen globally so far for a sCFR.) The estimated sCFR for H1N1 from six studies conducted in Denmark, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States ranged from 0.002% to 0.013% for children, 0.018% to 0.159% for those aged 18 to 64, and 0.090 to 0.308% for seniors.(source)Just wondering in what respect H1N1 is more dangerous than COVID-19.Thanks for any research you can share

Do some research about what's happening in Italy. They are sinking, people More of Him...less of me.twitter.com/camiracle77www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=691241499&ref=name